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        ],
        "weeks": 16
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    }
  },
  "fetched_at": "2026-11-12T22:52:48Z",
  "overall": "Weak moat evidence",
  "passes": 1,
  "snapshot_date": "2026-11-12",
  "tests": {
    "t1": {
      "effect": 0.14789,
      "effect_pct": 0.159385,
      "event": "2026-02-23",
      "first_stage": {
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        "pre": {
          "capture": 0.078002,
          "fee_bps": 18.030965
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      "fit": {
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        "post_rmspe": 0.492813,
        "pre_rmspe": 0.571499,
        "weights": {
          "Maya Protocol": 0.6295,
          "SOCKET": 0.3705
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      "horizon_weeks": 8,
      "n_placebos": 29,
      "name": "Pricing power",
      "p_loss": 0.0,
      "placebo_distribution": {
        "by_date": [
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            "2025-12-29",
            2.468199
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            "2025-12-22",
            2.517355
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          [
            "2025-12-15",
            2.592388
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          [
            "2025-12-08",
            2.662677
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          [
            "2025-12-01",
            3.13985
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          [
            "2025-11-24",
            3.078986
          ],
          [
            "2025-11-17",
            3.818869
          ],
          [
            "2025-11-10",
            4.23456
          ],
          [
            "2025-11-03",
            4.866283
          ],
          [
            "2025-10-27",
            5.77368
          ],
          [
            "2025-10-20",
            6.263503
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          [
            "2025-10-13",
            8.477103
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          [
            "2025-10-06",
            10.218308
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          [
            "2025-09-29",
            10.511777
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          [
            "2025-09-22",
            7.863906
          ],
          [
            "2025-09-15",
            6.439356
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          [
            "2025-09-08",
            5.521199
          ],
          [
            "2025-09-01",
            4.551213
          ],
          [
            "2025-08-25",
            3.721352
          ],
          [
            "2025-08-18",
            3.478501
          ],
          [
            "2025-08-11",
            3.23799
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          [
            "2025-08-04",
            3.023405
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          [
            "2025-07-28",
            3.959078
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          [
            "2025-07-21",
            4.257785
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          [
            "2025-07-14",
            4.296687
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          [
            "2025-07-07",
            4.562936
          ],
          [
            "2025-06-30",
            7.765063
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          [
            "2025-06-23",
            10.333744
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          [
            "2025-06-16",
            11.731577
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        ],
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        "median_pct": 4.296687,
        "min_pct": 2.468199,
        "n_mature": 0,
        "p10_pct": 2.64851,
        "p90_pct": 10.241301,
        "p_loss_mature": null
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      "placebo_in_space": {
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        "p": 0.833333,
        "rank": 5,
        "rows": [
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            "effect": -0.022608,
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            "ratio": 1.522725
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          {
            "effect": 0.246415,
            "id": "maya_volume",
            "ratio": 1.313891
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          {
            "effect": 0.480672,
            "id": "socket_volume",
            "ratio": 1.157177
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          {
            "effect": -0.168723,
            "id": "alldex_volume",
            "ratio": 1.101472
          },
          {
            "effect": 0.14789,
            "id": "intents_volume",
            "ratio": 0.862317
          },
          {
            "effect": -0.06402,
            "id": "thorchain_volume",
            "ratio": 0.825741
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        ]
      },
      "robustness": {
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        "leave_one_out_pct": {
          "All DEX volume": 0.159385,
          "Chainflip": 0.159385,
          "Maya Protocol": 0.236945,
          "SOCKET": 0.313542,
          "THORChain": 0.159385
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        "leave_one_out_range_pct": [
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          0.313542
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        "pre_13_weeks_pct": 0.245818,
        "with_contaminated_pct": 0.182465
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      "verdict": "PASS"
    },
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      "effect_pct": -0.207824,
      "event": "2026-10-01",
      "fit": {
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        "post_rmspe": 0.215951,
        "pre_rmspe": 0.132553,
        "weights": {
          "0x Bridge Aggregator": 0.1797,
          "All DEX volume": 0.8098,
          "Chainflip": 0.0105
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      "horizon_weeks": 6,
      "n_placebos": 63,
      "name": "Trust shock",
      "p_loss": 0.047619,
      "placebo_distribution": {
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            0.352101
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            "2026-08-13",
            0.212978
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            "2026-08-06",
            0.036044
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          [
            "2026-07-30",
            -0.003162
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          [
            "2026-07-23",
            0.022603
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          [
            "2026-07-16",
            0.348815
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          [
            "2026-07-09",
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          [
            "2026-07-02",
            0.271428
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          [
            "2026-06-25",
            0.149758
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          [
            "2026-06-18",
            0.14433
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          [
            "2026-06-11",
            0.290605
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          [
            "2026-06-04",
            0.40897
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          [
            "2026-05-28",
            0.374948
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          [
            "2026-05-21",
            0.150087
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          [
            "2026-05-14",
            0.36628
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          [
            "2026-05-07",
            0.45259
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          [
            "2026-04-30",
            0.41986
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          [
            "2026-04-23",
            0.572986
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          [
            "2026-04-16",
            0.528937
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          [
            "2026-04-09",
            0.051615
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          [
            "2026-04-02",
            0.149105
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          [
            "2026-03-26",
            0.193944
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          [
            "2026-03-19",
            -0.268269
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          [
            "2026-03-12",
            -0.36572
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          [
            "2026-03-05",
            0.127403
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          [
            "2026-02-26",
            0.583192
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          [
            "2026-02-19",
            1.011316
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          [
            "2026-02-12",
            0.632299
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          [
            "2026-02-05",
            0.169967
          ],
          [
            "2026-01-29",
            0.113181
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          [
            "2026-01-22",
            -0.223929
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          [
            "2026-01-15",
            0.130055
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          [
            "2026-01-08",
            1.585783
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          [
            "2026-01-01",
            1.415055
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          [
            "2025-12-25",
            2.730063
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          [
            "2025-12-18",
            3.419593
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          [
            "2025-12-11",
            3.708714
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          [
            "2025-12-04",
            4.560469
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          [
            "2025-11-27",
            4.288687
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          [
            "2025-11-20",
            3.367948
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          [
            "2025-11-13",
            2.31876
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          [
            "2025-11-06",
            2.959122
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          [
            "2025-10-30",
            4.211172
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          [
            "2025-10-23",
            7.042554
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          [
            "2025-10-16",
            15.11332
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          [
            "2025-10-09",
            15.08649
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          [
            "2025-10-02",
            16.437372
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          [
            "2025-09-25",
            12.152358
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          [
            "2025-09-18",
            8.293048
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          [
            "2025-09-11",
            6.552656
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          [
            "2025-09-04",
            7.152266
          ],
          [
            "2025-08-28",
            5.978916
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          [
            "2025-08-21",
            3.396104
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          [
            "2025-08-14",
            3.224172
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          [
            "2025-08-07",
            4.079095
          ],
          [
            "2025-07-31",
            3.625835
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          [
            "2025-07-24",
            3.072103
          ],
          [
            "2025-07-17",
            3.083871
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          [
            "2025-07-10",
            4.544679
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          [
            "2025-07-03",
            7.40103
          ],
          [
            "2025-06-26",
            9.868513
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          [
            "2025-06-19",
            10.557251
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          [
            "2025-06-12",
            7.210738
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        ],
        "max_pct": 16.437372,
        "median_pct": 1.011316,
        "min_pct": -0.36572,
        "n_mature": 34,
        "p10_pct": 0.06365,
        "p90_pct": 8.107371,
        "p_loss_mature": 0.088235
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      "placebo_in_space": {
        "n": 5,
        "p": 1.0,
        "rank": 5,
        "rows": [
          {
            "effect": 1.983079,
            "id": "zerox_volume",
            "ratio": 2.831881
          },
          {
            "effect": -0.930551,
            "id": "alldex_volume",
            "ratio": 2.531637
          },
          {
            "effect": 0.931417,
            "id": "chainflip_volume",
            "ratio": 1.977932
          },
          {
            "effect": -0.943493,
            "id": "socket_volume",
            "ratio": 1.707708
          },
          {
            "effect": -0.232972,
            "id": "intents_volume",
            "ratio": 1.62917
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        ]
      },
      "robustness": {
        "did_pct": -0.487421,
        "leave_one_out_pct": {
          "0x Bridge Aggregator": 0.123382,
          "All DEX volume": -0.626392,
          "Chainflip": -0.199307,
          "SOCKET": -0.207824
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        "leave_one_out_range_pct": [
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        "pre_13_weeks_pct": -0.316703,
        "with_contaminated_pct": 0.26979
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      "shock": -0.014736,
      "shock_pct": -0.014628,
      "verdict": "FAIL",
      "weekly_gap_pct": {
        "0": -0.246207,
        "1": 0.288097,
        "2": -0.14273,
        "3": -0.028931,
        "4": -0.236408,
        "5": -0.178171
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    },
    "t3": {
      "elasticity_descriptive": 0.082214,
      "median_competitor_bps": 18.429272,
      "median_intents_bps": 13.978363,
      "name": "Price premium",
      "premium_weeks": 0.038462,
      "sensitivity_share_slope_thor_chainflip": -0.019435,
      "sensitivity_weeks": 20,
      "share_competitors": [
        "Chainflip"
      ],
      "share_first": 0.744513,
      "share_last": 0.829239,
      "share_slope_ci90": [
        -0.004491,
        0.003407
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      "share_slope_pct_per_week": -0.000835,
      "share_slope_per_week": -0.000835,
      "verdict": "FAIL",
      "weeks_rated": 26,
      "window_end": "2026-11-11",
      "window_start": "2026-05-14"
    }
  }
}